The price of a player is a forecast, and nobody independent makes it.

Clubs and funds pay today for seasons that haven’t been played.

A stake in a club, a long contract, an extension and a draft pick all fix a price on one day for value that comes in over years. The ten largest sports agencies alone represent more than $72 billionForbes 2025 in player contracts.

What each deal turns out to be worth depends on form, age, workload and injuries still to come, so its price is a forecast.

We’re building our models to simulate every level, from a single pitch to a whole career, and to give every path a career could take next to the one it took.

Most of those forecasts lean on last season’s numbers.

In baseball, basketball, American football and hockey, pay tracks last season’s play more closely than the season it pays for.

Any price set before a season has to lean on the last one.

Forecasts learn from players who already reached the top leagues.

  1. Few careers reach the top league.
  2. Most player data starts here, once they reach the top league.
  3. We’re building forecasts of every career from its first season.

A price depends on the whole field: the stars, the near-misses, the late arrivals and the many who stall. Data recorded after players reach the top leagues covers only the stars.

Forecasts built on past numbers miss the cases where prices go most wrong.

The worst misses are the late bloomer who looked ordinary at twenty, the decline that starts before the contract ends, and the long middle of the draft, where the pick number says little about the career. Among NFL players picked 65th to 100th, 79% of the rookies who played the most (the top quarter) earned a second contract. Among the quarter who played the least, 17% did.

Pay also peaks after play. A baseball player plays his best near 26 and is paid the most near 32, about six years later. Basketball, American football and soccer show a shorter version of the same lag.

A slightly better forecast is worth millions a year.

In baseball, one extra win costs a club about $11.36 million through free agency and about $2.51 million through the draft.

  • Through the draft$2.51M a win
  • Through an extension$5.41M a win
  • In free agency$11.36M a win
A win from a free agent costs more than four times a win from the draft.

The cheaper routes depend on judging a player’s future earlier and more accurately. If better forecasting turned 5% more picks outside the first round into typical starters, an NFL team would gain about $7 million of cap value a draft, and an NBA team about $4 million on picks 15 to 60.

We’re building simulations of whole careers, starting with baseball.

The models simulate how athletes move and decide, one moment at a time. We’re extending them to play that forward through a game, a season and a career, with a range of outcomes for every player in the field, including those who haven’t reached the top leagues yet.

Our models are built for every level, from one pitch out to a whole career. v0 runs the pitch and the at-bat today; we’re building the rest.

v0, our first demo, simulates pitcher against batter in baseball.

See our v0

A technical whitepaper explains how the models work. We share it by invitation, along with the v0 demo and its model card and technical report.

Who buys it: our business model